Critical: $100K in a Roth IRA is worth more than $100K in a Traditional 401(k) because of taxes. Separate your accounts for accurate planning.
After-tax value: $--
Tax-free in retirement
~15% capital gains tax
$50,000
Effective after-tax value: $--
2. Investment Strategy
Asset Allocation
ⓘ
3. Additional Income & Expenses (Optional)
Add future income sources (Social Security, pensions, rental income) or expenses (healthcare, travel)
4. Retirement Goals
Your Retirement Plan
📊
Scenario Analysis
Compare optimistic, base-case, and pessimistic projections to understand uncertainty
Base Case Scenario
Years Until FIRE
--
Based on current assumptions
Retirement Age
--
Financial independence achieved
FIRE Number
$--
Total portfolio needed
Monthly Savings
$--
Required contribution
🏖️
CoastFIRE: When Can You Stop Saving?
Stop contributing but keep working - let compound interest carry you to FIRE
CoastFIRE Age
--
Stop saving, keep working
Portfolio at CoastFIRE
$--
Last contribution needed
Years of "Freedom"
--
Work stress-free until FIRE
💡 What is CoastFIRE?
CoastFIRE means you've saved enough that compound interest alone will reach your FIRE number by retirement age - even if you never contribute another dollar. You can:
Switch to a lower-stress job - Money is no longer the priority
Work part-time - Just cover expenses, no need to save
Pursue passion projects - Career changes become risk-free
Relax about savings - Your FIRE date is locked in
You're -- years away from CoastFIRE. Once you reach it, you'll have -- years of financial freedom before full FIRE.
📊 Scenario Comparison
Optimistic (Best Case)
-- years
Higher returns, lower inflation
Base Case (Your Inputs)
-- years
Your expected assumptions
Pessimistic (Worst Case)
-- years
Lower returns, higher inflation
Range of Outcomes:-- to -- years
This range helps you understand the uncertainty in your retirement timeline based on market performance and economic conditions.
🎲
Monte Carlo Simulation (500 Scenarios)
Fast probabilistic modeling with randomized market returns
Success Rate
--
of 500 scenarios
Median Outcome
--
years to FIRE
Range (10th-90th %ile)
--
years spread
Distribution of Outcomes
📊 How Monte Carlo Works
Instead of assuming a constant 7% return every year, Monte Carlo runs 1,000 different scenarios where each year's return is randomly selected from a realistic distribution based on historical market data:
Stock volatility: ±18% standard deviation (historical S&P 500)
Bond volatility: ±6% standard deviation
Sequence of returns risk: Models bad years early vs. late
Real-world accuracy: Accounts for market crashes and booms
🎯
Plan Success Probability (Trinity Study)
Based on historical market data and your withdrawal rate
0%25%50%75%100%
--
Calculating success rate...
How is this calculated?
Success probability is based on historical data from the Trinity Study, which analyzed retirement success rates from 1926-2009 across different withdrawal rates and time periods.
90%+ Success: High confidence - Your plan has survived most historical market scenarios
75-90% Success: Good probability - Minor adjustments may improve safety
<60% Success: High risk - Significant changes recommended
Note: This is a simplified estimate. Actual success depends on sequence of returns, market timing, life expectancy, and flexibility to adjust spending. Current scenario: Base Case
⚡
Stress Test: Market Crisis Scenarios
See how your plan handles major market downturns
▼
These scenarios simulate how your retirement plan would be impacted by historical market crises. Understanding worst-case scenarios helps you prepare for volatility.
If a 2008-level crisis occurred at retirement start, your portfolio would drop but likely recover given your time horizon.
Diversification helps: Bonds and cash reduce volatility during crashes
Time heals: Markets historically recover, but sequence matters
Flexibility key: Ability to reduce spending 10-20% dramatically improves survival
Emergency fund: 2-3 years of expenses in bonds/cash protects against selling low
Note: These stress tests assume the crisis occurs at retirement start (worst-case timing). Earlier crises would have less impact due to ongoing contributions.
Help others discover FIRE! Shares include tracking to measure impact.
💵 Display Values In:
Nominal Dollars: Shows actual dollar amounts you'll see in your account. Example: $2M in 2045.
💡 Tip: Switch to "Today's Dollars" to see what your future savings will actually buy in today's purchasing power. A $2M portfolio in 2045 might only buy what $1.2M buys today due to inflation.
Portfolio Growth Over Time
(Nominal Dollars)
Contributions vs Investment Returns
Year-by-Year Breakdown
Age
Year
Annual Savings
Investment Return
Total Portfolio
Understanding the 4% Rule & FIRE Movement
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study, which suggests you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio annually in retirement with minimal risk of running out of money. FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is a movement focused on achieving financial freedom through aggressive saving and smart investing. Your FIRE number is calculated as: Annual Expenses ÷ 0.04 (or 25x your annual expenses).
How This Calculator Works
This retirement calculator projects your path to financial independence using compound interest calculations. It factors in your current savings, annual contributions, expected investment returns, and inflation. The calculator shows when you'll reach your FIRE number (the amount needed to retire based on the 4% safe withdrawal rate) and provides a detailed year-by-year breakdown of your wealth accumulation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the FIRE movement?
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. It's a lifestyle movement focused on extreme saving and investing to retire decades earlier than traditional retirement age.
Is the 4% rule safe?
The 4% rule has historically been safe based on past market performance. However, future returns may vary. Many retirees use 3-3.5% for extra safety, especially for early retirement.
What's a realistic investment return?
The historical stock market average (1871-2024) is about 10% nominal (7% real after inflation). Conservative planners use 6-7% real returns to account for market volatility and safer asset allocation. Recent data (2015-2024) shows higher volatility, so consider using lower estimates for safety.
How accurate is this calculator?
This calculator uses industry-standard formulas based on the Trinity Study and 150+ years of market data. It accounts for asset allocation, taxes, inflation, and multiple income streams. However, actual results will vary based on market performance, life changes, and economic conditions. For best results, review your plan annually and adjust assumptions.
Should I account for Social Security?
Yes! Use the "Add Income Stream" feature to include Social Security starting at your planned claim age (62-70). The average benefit in 2025 is $1,900/month ($22,800/year), but check your SSA.gov statement for personalized estimates. Consider adding 2% annual COLA growth.
🚀 Try an Example Scenario
Click any scenario below to auto-fill the calculator with realistic values